Mexican Bandhs

Above: traffic in Monterrey, Mexico.  Image from: http://www.mexicoenfotos.com/

Greg and Jan Millsaps are American Christian missionaries serving in Monterrey, Mexico (besides, more importantly, being ICon readers.)   Their blog contains a firsthand account of life in a city under siege by criminal insurgents:

"Yesterday the army arrested the Monterrey-area boss of the Zetas, known as El Tory, and, in an effort to free him, his Zeta operatives set up 30 roadblocks all over the city which completely shut it down.  I had spent the whole day in Monterrey and, fortunately for me, I'd just left the city when the blockades started at around 5:00 pm.  The desperate attempt to catch the army convoy in bumper to bumper traffic failed, however, and the army got their big fish back to the safety of the base. 

While the operational capabilities of the Zetas to set up thirty roadblocks so quickly is somewhat impressive, to me it only reveals that they have a hidden army of street rateros (punks) in place all over the city who, at a moment's notice, can be ordered to hijack city buses and tractor trailers.  The fact is that over the last months the army and federal police forces have consistently whipped the cartels at every turn and despite the fact that Monterrey's homicide rate is the highest in its 414-year history, people are starting to have hope that perhaps the government may be winning after all."

Greg and Jan may be correct that government  forces are winning tactically.  Nonetheless, tactical military superiority will not necessarily produce strategic success.  

Consider the Zetas' attempt to free their boss described above.  If we look narrowly at this operation, it looks like a Zeta failure; the Mexican Army convoy carrying El Tory managed to escape the Zetas' blockade.  Nonetheless, if we conceive of the blockade as a bandh, and not merely as an effort to free the boss, the Zetas' chances for continued success in this city increase.  The Zetas have used such blockades for this purpose before.

The Bandh concept comes from the Indian Naxalite insurgency (as covered by Shlok Vaidya).  A bandh is the systemic shutdown of a particular area.  A criminal insurgency that can repeatedly shut down a local economy will be hard to defeat. 

For more analysis of bandhs, see John Robb.

- Russ

Comments

[russ greene]

The Zeta's impact here is compounded by the fact that Monterrey is Mexico's richest city and the country's industrial capital.

Focused system disruption here could exert enormous leverage on the already over-taxed Mexican state.

For more on Monterrey, see here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10400784.stm

[Alex @ I-Con]

I've also heard of this strategy used before in Mexico with simultaneous attacks on authorities.

The bandh strategy can be key. Economic attacks are Mexico's weak spot. Making investing in Mexico less appealing worked for the Zapatistas earlier, and though their means are different, the cartels are MUCH more powerful. They could end up in some sort of compromise where the state and the cartels stay out of each others business. The way things are going, this would appeal to both parties.

[Shlok]

Very cool. Builds on the precedent - http://naxaliterage.com/?p=397

Musing. Is 30 just a random number used in the reporting on narcobloqueos or is it a hard won heuristic: IE crashing 30 intersections the point at which the system fails?

[Shlok]

Not sure why I linked to that.

Anyway, it ain't fun until they start renting out bandh's to the highest bidder.