The prime American interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan is to deny Al Qaeda safe-haven. Given the balloon effect, if the U.S. is successful at denying Al Qaeda safehaven in Afpak, it may only succeed in driving most of the Al Qaeda personnel currently located there into other poorly-governed areas.
The U.S. cannot make Afghanistan-style commitments to Somalia, Yemen, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia. What should American policy be in these areas?
One option is found here.
Details are hard to come by like an Arabic-speaking agent in the FBI. Nevertheless, an American Special Operations Forces unit has attacked and killed a terrorist seeking refuge in Somalia.
Some positive aspects:
1. Obama is willing to fight Al Qaeda operators where they're located.
3. The U.S. may have information access superiority against the terror networks operating in Somalia. From the article:
"Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, Horn of Africa Project Director of the International Crisis Group, said the "the surgical" precision of Monday's raid shows that U.S. has specific intelligence in Somalia.
"I think it will certainly make al-Shabab leaders much more cautious when they are operating because obviously the United States has very precise intelligence about their movements," he said."
Some drawbacks to this option are:
1. This could have ended really badly. The SOF unit apparently infiltrated via helicopter. What if a Somali RPG round had shot down that helicopter?
2. Precision strikes are limited in their long-term effect on Somalia's utility for jihadis. Somalia is likely to be a lawless refuge for unsavory characters of all kinds for many years to come.
by Russ@ICon
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